NFL Week 14 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Monday Night Football: Sell the movement toward the over and buy the under at 49.5.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game:

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DET -5	DET -4	DET -3.5
Total	51	50.5	51.5

Spread: One-way action has pushed this to nearly a field-goal spread. After opening up at 4, a point below the lookahead line, the market is now split between 3 and 3.5.

Total: Within a minute of opening, this total crossed to the other side of 51, but that’s the highest it’s gotten. I don’t see much movement away from this number before Thursday night.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIN -5.5	MIN -6	MIN -5.5
Total	46.5	44.5	45.5

Spread: This was initially pushed down to as low as 4.5 before bouncing back up to 5.5, but not quite back to the opening number. There’s been some clamoring for Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons have lost 3 straight. If the Falcons offense looks shaky early, there’s a chance we see a switch, despite Raheem Morris telling us otherwise.

Total: One point adjustment up through 45, yet a full point below the lookahead number. The Falcons have played to the under in their last four games and five of their previous six.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the over and lock it in at 45.5. I’ll buy at what I believe to be a slightly depressed total, given the Falcons‘ recent results. I expect Atlanta to push the pace, and even if there is a quarterback change, that would likely be the result of multiple turnovers early — which is good for the over. I’d look for some live overs if Penix does come in, as we saw his willingness to push the ball down the field in Washington last year.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NO -4	NO -4	NO -4.5
Total	39.5	40.5	40.5

Spread: This has hovered between 4 and 5 this week, but the trend is pointing toward New Orleans moving to -5. It remains to be seen who starts at QB for the Giants. Even if Tommy Devito is healthy, Brian Daboll made it seem like he saw enough out of Drew Lock to stick with him.

Total: It's a similar story on the total, as it’s bounced between 40 and 41 for most of the week. We’ve yet to see anything above 41. If Lock is announced as the starter, I think this gets to 41.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TEN -2.5	TEN -4.5	TEN -3.5
Total	43.5	39.5	39.5

Spread: This line opened well on the other side of a field goal with Trevor Lawrence out with a concussion. Given how Mac Jones looked in relief, that was quickly bet down to 3.5. There are still some 4s out there.

Total: A four-point drop in the total also reflects Lawrence’s absence. There’s been little movement from the opener.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TB -8	TB -7	TB -6.5
Total	45.5	45	46

Spread: There was a one-point drop to 7 from the lookahead and another drop to below that number after the opener. The market is fairly split, with a majority of books at 6.5.

Total: The total has remained within one point of 46, dipping before settling there.

Situational Factors: The Raiders have a slight rest advantage, having played on Black Friday, but they will also be traveling cross-country.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the movement on the Raiders and lock in the Bucs at -6.5. While most books are at 6.5, a few market-making books have held firm at 7. This feels like an overreaction to a near-overtime loss to the Panthers, whose play on the field as of late has been better than their perception.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PIT -6	PIT -7	PIT -7
Total	40.5	41	44

Spread: This is another game in which the market is split between 6.5 and 7, with market-making books clinging onto the key number of 7. One bet I’m willing to make is that we see less snow than we did in this matchup a couple of weeks back.

Total: This total reopened 1.5 points higher than the Sunday opener. After the Browns‘ offense exploded in Denver on Monday Night Football, it shot up an additional point to 44.

Buy/Sell: It’s ironic given what we saw them play in last, but this is a perfect storm creating value on the under. I’ll lock that in at 44 and expect it to close lower. Both teams’ games exploded this past week for 82 and 73 points, respectively. Their most recent matchup in Week 12 went over by a touchdown as well. However, if you’re paying attention here, you’ll know that accumulated snow on the field helped fuel that game over. There were only 16 points scored through nearly three quarters before the snow really started to come down.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -13	PHI -13	PHI -12.5
Total	45.5	46	46

Spread: Half-point adjustment down to 12.5 from the opening 13. Not much aside from that.

Total: Similar story with the total, we’ve seen some books move to 45.5, but yet to see anything meaningful below that or above 46.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIA -6.5	MIA -5.5	MIA -6
Total	44.5	44.5	44.5

Spread: Miami reached 6.5 before settling back in at 6. We’re seeing some movement toward 6.5.

Total: The initial move saw the total rise to 46 before a pick release pushed it back to the opening number of 44.5. There are still some 45s out there.

Situational Factors: After playing on Thanksgiving, the Dolphins have a slight rest advantage.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ARI -1.5	ARI -3	ARI -2.5
Total	46.5	45.5	44.5

Spread: Seattle money has pushed this below a field goal to 2.5. A few books have gotten as low as 2; at that point, we’ve seen some support for the Cardinals.

Total: A two-point slide from the lookahead line, this total has reached as low as 44 before ticking back up to 44.5. There are nothing but 44.5s across the board.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BUF -3.5	BUF -4	BUF -4.5
Total	49	48	49

Spread: Zero movement outside of the range of 4 and 5. Given how these two teams have fared recently, I don’t expect to see many more tweaks before kickoff.

Total: Despite opening at 48, this quickly reached a consensus at 49 within minutes of opening. We are starting to see some books venture out to 49.5.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SF -6.5	SF -3.5	SF -4
Total	44.5	43.5	44

Spread: Quite the drop from the lookahead line, down three points to an opener of 3.5. The San Francisco injury report largely drove this. There was a move to SF -4, but we’ve yet to see any book take it past that number. Something’s got to give, as these two teams have combined for nine straight losses.

Total: Some support has come in on the over after opening a point below the lookahead line. You can currently get a half-point in either direction of 44. I’d expect the 43.5s to not hang around for much longer.

Situational Factors: Rest advantage for the Bears off of Thanksgiving and the 49ers having played on Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -4.5	KC -3.5	KC -4
Total	44.5	42.5	43

Spread: The initial move pushed this down to a field goal, and it stayed there for about 90 minutes before a pick release helped fuel a move back up past the opener to 4. Given the market reaction to the -3, this closes between 3.5 and 4.

Total: This was as high as 44.5 before coming back down to 43. We’re now split, and it appears we’re heading toward 42.5. Can’t imagine it getting much lower than that.

Situational Factors: The Chiefs have a slight rest advantage, having played on Black Friday. The Chargers are playing their second consecutive game on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -5.5	CIN -5	CIN -5.5
Total	45.5	46.5	49.5

Spread: Out to as high as 6 before returning to 5.5. There are a few 5s out there as well now.

Total: After opening, we pretty quickly saw a two-point adjustment toward the over. Monday morning, a pick release pushed that an additional 1.5 points to 50 and even 50.5 at a couple of books.

Situational Factors: Extra rest advantage for the Cowboys having played on Thanksgiving.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the movement toward the over and buy the under at 49.5. We’re getting on the right side of a key number: 3 points above the initial opener. This is likely driven by the offensive onslaught we saw in the Bengals’ Week 13 game, but I’m not sure this Dallas offense is equipped to take advantage of the Bengals defense in the same fashion.