• Bucky Irving is primed to be a league-winner in fantasy football: Over his last three games, Irving has delivered elite performances, finishing as the RB7, RB3, and RB1 overall in weekly fantasy points. His workload continues to grow, and with a highly favorable remaining schedule, he’s positioned to carry many teams to championship glory.
• Jonathan Taylor is due for positive touchdown regression: Since Week 10, Taylor has logged the second-most carries and leads the NFL in red-zone carries, yet he hasn’t scored a single rushing touchdown. Given his track record of finding the end zone, this drought is more about bad luck than performance. Expect his touchdown production to rebound following the Colts’ bye.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
With so many running backs splitting their backfield in today’s NFL, it is more important than ever to figure out which players are receiving the most valuable snaps and touches on their team and who is slowly losing their workload to teammates who are outproducing them.
Here are the top running back takeaways over the first 13 weeks of the 2024 season that could greatly impact fantasy points in Week 14 and beyond.
Buccaneers Bucky Irving records career-high touches in back-to-back games
Since his team’s Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie Bucky Irving has recorded 46 touches over the last two weeks. His 240 rushing yards and 337 scrimmage yards over that span both rank second-most in the NFL, behind only Saquon Barkley.
In Week 12, Irving recorded career-highs in touches (18), racking up 151 scrimmage yards. He then immediately beat those numbers with 28 touches for 185 yards in Week 13. After the bye, Irving has out-touched teammate Rachaad White 46-25, tallying 14 more carries and seven more receptions.
Irving has earned his bigger role and has proven he can handle it. This season, he averages 5.5 yards per carry, the fourth-best mark among players with 100-plus carries, behind only Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry. Over the last two weeks, he has been even more productive despite a larger workload, averaging 6.5 yards per carry in the span.
His end-of-season schedule is fantastic, with matchups against the Raiders and Cowboys in two of his next three games. Then, he will cap off the fantasy season with the best matchup possible, as he faces the Panthers‘ last-ranked run defense in Week 17.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers
The Cowboys have started to trust RB Rico Dowdle with a large workload
Saquon Barkley (55) and Josh Jacobs (49) are the only players with more touches than Rico Dowdle (47) over the past two weeks. Dowdle has joined elite company as one of just four running backs with 40-plus carries in that span, alongside Barkley, Jacobs and Derrick Henry. He has set career-highs in touches in back-to-back weeks, with 22 in Week 12 and 25 in Week 13.
Dowdle has delivered strong fantasy returns when given opportunities, as he has averaged 18.3 fantasy points in games where he has logged 16 or more touches this season.
Dowdle couldn’t ask for a nicer end-of-season fantasy schedule. This weekend, he faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs over the last two weeks. Then he gets the Panthers, Buccaneers and Cowboys from Weeks 15-17, who have allowed the most, ninth-most, and sixth-most fantasy points per game to RBs in 2024, respectively.
Upcoming matchups: vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Cowboys
Jonathan Taylor has 81 carries but zero rushing touchdowns since Week 10
Jonathan Taylor’s 81 carries since Week 10 rank second in the NFL, trailing only Saquon Barkley’s 89. He’s one of just three players with 75+ carries during that span, alongside Barkley and Joe Mixon. However, while Barkley and Mixon have each scored five rushing touchdowns in that time, Taylor has yet to find the end zone.
Taylor’s workload has been substantial, especially in scoring situations. He leads the league in red zone carries since Week 10, with Joe Mixon (20) and Josh Jacobs (18) trailing behind. Despite their success in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns—Mixon and Jacobs have at least four rushing touchdowns each—Taylor’s touchdown drought is a surprising anomaly that should positively regress in the coming weeks.
Jonathan Taylor’s touchdown luck is primed for a rebound. Historically, Taylor hasn’t struggled to find the end zone, scoring a touchdown on 4.3% of his carries over his first four NFL seasons (2020-2023). This season, that rate has dropped to just 2.7%, a clear outlier for the elite running back.
While the Colts are on bye in Week 14, Taylor’s playoff schedule provides an opportunity for a strong finish. Week 15 presents a tough matchup against the Broncos' stingy run defense, but the road brightens from there. In Week 16, Taylor faces the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs in 2024. Championship Week (Week 17) offers an ideal matchup against the Giants' porous run defense, one of the worst in the league.
Fantasy managers who’ve stayed patient with Taylor are in a position to be rewarded during the playoff stretch.`
Upcoming matchups: bye week, at Broncos, at Titans, at Giants
Chase Brown has handled 85% of the Bengals‘ rush attempts since Week 9
Since Zack Moss went down with an injury before Week 9, no player has seen a higher percentage of their team carries than Chase Brown (85.1%). He is the only player at over 80% and one of just five players with over 70% of their team’s rushing attempts since Week 9 — Bengals’ Joe Mixon (78.6), Rams’ Kyren Williams (73.5), Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard (73.2) and Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (71.8).
Since Week 9, Brown has averaged 24 touches, 123.5 scrimmage yards, and 21.9 fantasy points per game. Saquon Barkley is the only running back who has averaged more fantasy points than Brown in that span. His fantasy production should continue to thrive as he has favorable matchups in each of the next three weeks against the Cowboys, Titans and Browns.
Upcoming matchups: at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos
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