Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 13

• C.J. Stroud’s matchup is too good to ignore: Even though Stroud is averaging fewer fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers this season, he is bound to have a monster game against the Jacksonville Jaguars secondary this weekend.

• Bucky Irving is a must-start in Week 13: If you roster Bucky Irving, he needs to be in your starting lineup this weekend against the Carolina Panthers. He has been highly successful as not only a rusher but also a receiver as of late and gets to face the most favorable fantasy defense for running backs in Week 13.

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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 13. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Bo Nix (vs. CLE)

This Rookie of the Year candidate has been on fire when playing at Mile High. Bo Nix has scored 23, 21, 30 and 29 fantasy pts in his last four home games. He has scored four touchdowns, thrown zero interceptions and has had at least 280 pass yards in each of his last two home games. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have struggled defensively in away games — they have allowed 19-plus fantasy points to each of the last three quarterbacks they have faced on the road (Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels).

Sleeper QB of the Week: C.J. Stroud (at JAX)

Coming into this season, I did not expect to ever have C.J. Stroud as a “sleeper” … but sadly he is averaging just 13.9 fantasy point per game in 2024 — that is less than Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. The last time we saw Stroud score more than 15 points was back in Week 6. That changes this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have let nearly every quarterback they have faced destroy them.

Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Joe Flacco, Josh Allen and even Stroud have all scored at least 21 fantasy points against the Jaguars this season. When Stroud faced Jacksonville earlier this season, he put up a season-high 345 pass yards and 23.5 fantasy points.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Tua Tagovailoa (at GB)

In 10 road games since the start of the 2023 season, Tua Tagovailoa has averaged just 14.4 fantasy points per game. He has scored fewer than 15 points in seven of his last nine away games. He has not scored 20-plus points in a road game since Week 1, 2023 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The weather in LA in September compared to Green Bay in late November could not be more different.

Even if Tagaovialoa did magically learn how to play well in the cold weather, this is still a tough matchup for any quarterback. The Green Bay Packers have not allowed an opposing quarterback to hit even 12 fantasy points against them in any of their last four home games.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Bucky Irving (at CAR)

Last weekend, Bucky Irving recorded career-highs in touches (19), scrimmage yards (151) and fantasy points (27). He has now scored at least 15 points in five of his last six games, and the only game he didn’t came against the Kansas City Chiefs‘ elite run defense. Irving is seeing the largest workload in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield regularly while getting premium carries in the red zone and near the goal line. He should have no trouble eating up the Carolina Panthers defense who have allowed the most rushing touchdowns and fantasy points per game to running backs this season.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Rico Dowdle (vs. NYG)

Mike McCarthy said that Rico Dowdle would get the chance to lead this backfield, which is exactly what he has been doing as of late. Last week, Dowdle tied a career-high with 22 touches in the game — he put up 86 yards on the ground on 19 carries and 12 yards through the air. Dowdle has not had at least 15 touches in three of the Cowboys' last four games, while Ezekiel Elliott has seen his role all but diminish, getting just four carries over the last two weeks combined. The New York Giants allow the most yards per carry and sixth most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Dowdle is a solid bet to at least score double-digit fantasy points on Thanksgiving.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Nick Chubb (at DEN)

Fantasy managers were pleasantly surprised last Thursday night when Chubb scored 19 fantasy points on the back of finding the end zone twice against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that was Chubb’s first game scoring more than 10 points in any game this season. Over his first four games played in 2024, he averaged just 6.2 fantasy points per game. Chubb has yet to put up more than 60 scrimmage yards in a game this year and is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. The Cleveland Browns gave him a massive workload with 20 carries in Week 12, and he still only recorded 59 rushing yards.

Chubb will need to score a touchdown to get close to hitting 10 points this weekend but the Denver Broncos have only allowed five rushing touchdowns to running all season long, with two of those coming from TD machine King Henry.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Courtland Sutton (vs. CLE)

Sutton has been on fire for the last five weeks, averaging nearly 10 targets and over 93 yards per game in that span. In fact, no player has more receiving yards than Sutton since Week 8. Last weekend, he scored a season-high 29.7 points and he should have no trouble finding success again this Sunday in a great matchup. The Browns have allowed seven wide receivers to put up 16-plus fantasy points against them over their last six games played.

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. LAR)

Valdes-Scantling’s playing time has increased each week with the New Orleans Saints, getting up to being on the field for 65% of the Saints' offensive snaps in Week 11 before their bye. Over his last two games, Valdes-Scantling has scored 42.6 fantasy points while putting up 196 receiving yards and scoring three touchdowns. Playing in an offense system and with a quarterback that loves to take deep shots, Valdes-Scantling just can’t stop making big plays. That is unfortunate news for the Los Angeles Rams defense that has allowed the fifth most deep passing yards and tied for the second-most deep passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Jaylen Waddle (at GB)

Week 12 was Jaylen Waddle’s first huge game of the season, and his first game scoring more than nine fantasy points since Week 1. I don’t anticipate Waddle putting up back-to-back good fantasy performances because his matchup on Thanksgiving night is a tough one, not only for him but also for his quarterback, who struggles to play in the cold elements.

The Green Bay Packers are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points and fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers in 2024 — they have not allowed a WR to hit 70 receiving yards against them in any of their last six games.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Cade Otton (at CAR)

After three monster fantasy outings from Weeks 7-9, Cade Otton has put up back-to-back stinkers over his last two games. The disappointment ends here. The Carolina Panthers have allowed 18.7 fantasy points per game to the tight end position, by far the most among all teams this season. Otton is a top-five TE option this week, with an upside to finish No. 1 at the position.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Pat Freiermuth (at CIN)

Freiermuth is neither an exciting nor consistent fantasy contributor, however, he has scored 10 fantasy points in two of the last three weeks and gets a juicy matchup in Week 13. The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the fifth most receiving yards, second most receiving touchdowns and second most fantasy points on average to the tight end position in 2024. Over the Bengals' last seven games, they have allowed six tight ends to score 15-plus points against them.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Cole Kmet (at DET)

It seems Cole Kmet comes alive and actually does something about once a month. He hit his quota for November in Week 12, and now we have to wait until the end of December for him to give us another good game. I joke, but for real, Kmet had just six receptions over his three games combined prior to coming down with seven balls last weekend. His target volume isn’t reliable and this matchup is extremely difficult – the Detroit Lions have allowed the fewest yards and fantasy points to the tight end position in 2024.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 13.