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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 12 Recap
- WR4 D.J. Moore: 24.9 PPR FP — did better than his average
- WR5 Keenan Allen: 23.6 PPR FP — did better than his average
- WR14 Calvin Austin III: 16.8 — did better than his average
- WR16 Michael Pittman Jr.: 15.6 — did better than his average
- WR17 Tre Tucker: 15.2 — did better than his average
- WR23 Noah Brown: 13.1 — did better than his average
- WR33 Jalen Tolbert: 10.2 — did better than his average
- WR46 Romeo Doubs: 8.4 — suffered Injury in the third quarter
- WR73 Kayshon Boutte: 1.6
- DeVonta Smith — did not play
I’m glad that Caleb Williams was finally able to put together a high-volume game for him and his receivers.
Tucker and Pittman have been on the list for weeks and finally realized their predicted opportunity.
Doubs recorded 54 yards in the first half with two solid targets at the beginning of the third quarter. However, he got injured on his way to what could have been a solid performance.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 13
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
The list of players to monitor this week is much larger than last week’s. As is common with regression-to-the-mean models, certain players appear repeatedly due to factors such as poor quarterback play or overall offensive struggles. Here’s a breakdown of the key names:
Malik Nabers: The rookie continues to deal with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, which is less than ideal for his fantasy value. While DeVito offers a floor similar to Daniel Jones', his ceiling is significantly lower. Per PFF’s stable metrics, DeVito ranks below the 20th percentile in several key areas, including clean-pocket grade, grade on standard dropbacks and sack rate. Nabers can still have explosive weeks, but they’re harder to come by. Against a Cowboys defense that’s average versus outside receivers, keep expectations tempered.
Zay Flowers/Rashod Bateman: Baltimore’s duo faces a decent slot matchup against the Eagles, who run MOFC coverage (middle of the field closed) at a top-seven rate. This generally enables strong wide receiver performances. However, Philadelphia has posted a league-leading 91.3 PFF team coverage grade since Week 8. Flowers is positioned well to see an increased target share, while Bateman, despite a tough assignment, could get at least one deep opportunity.
Marvin Harrison Jr./Michael Wilson: Arizona’s passing attack remains a concern due to low volume. Kyler Murray has only surpassed 300 passing yards once this season, and the Cardinals continue to pass well below expectation. That said, a pass-heavy game script, such as Week 12’s explosion from Allen and Moore, could create opportunity. Harrison shows up on the “Coach, I Was Open” table, and against the pass-funnel Vikings, this could be the perfect storm to cure Arizona’s volume issues.
Tank Dell: Dell has an excellent single-coverage matchup against the Jaguars, who have struggled recently. The only concern is whether Nico Collins will siphon targets.
Justin Jefferson: After a shockingly poor 4.7-point outing last week, Jefferson is poised for a rebound against the Cardinals. In what could become a shootout, expect a vintage Jefferson performance.
Rome Odunze: Despite falling behind Allen and Moore last week, Odunze drew 10 targets and showed his ability to get open. The Lions allow frequent single-coverage opportunities, and Odunze thrives in those situations, benefiting at the second-highest rate among Bears receivers.
Noah Brown: Brown delivered a solid game last week but remains on the list due to a challenging matchup against the Titans. Tennessee runs MOFO coverage (middle of the field open) at the 10th-highest rate, forcing offenses to distribute targets. Combined with their ninth-best PFF team coverage grade, this matchup will be a tough one for Brown.
Quentin Johnston: After a rough Week 12, where he dropped three of five targets, Johnston is a prime GPP bounce-back candidate. The Falcons, an average defense overall, have been a favorable fantasy matchup for wide receivers, making this a good spot for Johnston to rebound.
Kayshon Boutte: Boutte saw his target streak snapped last week, with fewer than six targets for the first time since Week 7. This week, he faces the Colts, who rank ninth in MOFC rate and ninth-worst in team PFF coverage grade over the past month.
Michael Pittman Jr.: On the opposite side of Boutte’s matchup, Pittman faces a middling Patriots secondary. New England allows frequent single-coverage situations, which could benefit Pittman as his role grows.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs is dealing with an injury, putting his Thanksgiving status in doubt.
Tre Tucker: Tucker is trending upward in terms of separation and schematics, but with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, it’s unlikely to translate into significant production.
Deebo Samuel: Making his first appearance on this list, Samuel faces a tough Bills defense with a top-five PFF coverage grade over the past month. The Bills’ high MOFO rate aligns with Samuel’s role in the offense, and if Brock Purdy plays, this could be a strong opportunity for Samuel.
Josh Palmer: Palmer saw a season-high in targets last week but missed out on a wide-open touchdown opportunity. With the Falcons being a favorable matchup for wide receivers, Palmer is in a good spot to bounce back alongside Johnston.
Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert gets a fantastic Thanksgiving matchup against a Giants defense with the second-worst PFF coverage grade over the past month. While CeeDee Lamb dominates targets against MOFC coverages, Tolbert could benefit, especially if Brandin Cooks remains sidelined.
Final Thoughts
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are well-positioned to exceed their recent average PPR, with a few potentially delivering explosive performances. Thank you for reading!
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