• Oregon–Penn State: The Ducks try to keep their undefeated season alive against a top-five team in Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
• Texas–Georgia: The Bulldogs look to take down the Longhorns once again this season in the SEC Championship Game.
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Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
We’ve finally made it to conference championship weekend.
In this 12-team playoff era, conference title games matter more than ever before. The top-five conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff with the top-four earning a first-round bye. Some conference championship games, like the Big 12 and Mountain West, are de facto playoff games themselves.
Here are the playoff implications, matchups to watch and predictions for all nine conference championship games this weekend.
C-USA Championship: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Friday, 7 PM EST on CBS Sports Network)
Playoff implications: None
Both Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State sport 8-4 records on the season, so they aren’t candidates for the Group of Five playoff spot no matter what happens elsewhere.
The Hilltoppers are going for their first Conference USA title since 2016, back when Jeff Brohm was their head coach. The Gamecocks meanwhile are trying to win a conference title in just their second season as an FBS program.
In their matchup just last week, Western Kentucky clinched a spot in this game with a 19-17 victory, featuring a game-winning 50-yard field goal with three seconds left.
Matchup to watch when Western Kentucky has the ball (Dalton): Will the Gamecocks be able to pressure Caden Veltkamp?
Jacksonville State enters this game with the 11th-lowest pass-rush grade, eighth-lowest pass-rush win rate and 13th-lowest pressure rate in the nation. In the same vein as teams like Iowa State or Cincinnati, the Hilltoppers run a 3-3-5 defense that heavily tilts its schemes toward the abilities of its coverage players.
The difference between those defenses and the Gamecocks’ unit is that the latter will send a linebacker at the quarterback very often as opposed to rushing just three. As such, their leader in pressures and sacks is actually linebacker Reginald Hughes, though his totals in those departments are modest along with his 61.4 pass-rush grade.
Last week, the Gamecocks only pressured Caden Veltkamp on 21.6% of his dropbacks. They still only allowed 19 points in that game. He carries just a 49.8 passing grade under pressure this season, so if those blitzes get home they may be able to force him into mistakes.
Matchup to watch when Jacksonville State has the ball (Max): Can the Gamecocks still win with its run game if Tyler Huff is out?
Jacksonville State’s offense is centered around its elite rushing attack. The Gamecocks have run the ball on 62.1% of their plays this season, trailing only the three military academies. Tre Stewart is eighth among FBS running backs with 924 yards after contact and fifth with 20 rushing touchdowns. Jacksonville State also has a top-25 run-blocking grade in the nation (70.5).
A big part of the Gamecocks’ ground game is quarterback Tyler Huff, whose 1,277 rushing yards are second among all signal-callers in America. He went down this past week against Western Kentucky with an injured ankle and did not return. His backup, Logan Smothers, isn’t nearly as dynamic as a runner, rushing for 387 yards as a part-time starter last season. Head coach Rich Rodriguez said that Huff’s status is uncertain for Friday night.
Western Kentucky’s had issues with its run defense all season. The Hilltoppers are 95th in yards per attempt allowed (5.3) and 80th in EPA per run allowed. Before going down midway through the third quarter, Huff had 99 rushing yards on 12 carries against Western Kentucky. If Huff is indeed out, the Hilltoppers should have a much easier job defending Stewart.
Predictions
Dalton: Western Kentucky 23, Jacksonville State 16
Losing Huff is a huge blow to a Jacksonville State team that has struggled to score over its past two games. Western Kentucky gets a second straight look at a defense that Veltkamp should be comfortable throwing into. I’ll take the Hilltoppers to grind out a win.
Max: Western Kentucky 27, Jacksonville State 24
If Huff is out, it’s hard to imagine what the Gamecocks will do outside of relying on Stewart as their workhorse. Western Kentucky wins its second meeting with Jacksonville State in as many weeks and takes home its first Conference USA title in eight years.
Mountain West Championship: No. 20 UNLV Rebels at No. 10 Boise State Broncos (Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX)
Playoff implications: De facto playoff game
Because UNLV and Boise State are the two highest-ranked Group of Five teams, this game will essentially decide who represents the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff.
If the Broncos win, they’ll also likely receive a first-round bye since it’s still ranked higher than any Big 12 school. Boise State won on the road over UNLV back in Week 9 by a 29-24 final score. The Broncos are trying to win back-to-back Mountain West championships while the Rebels haven’t outright won a conference title since their Big West championship in 1994.
Matchup to watch when Boise State has the ball (Dalton): Will the Broncos change things up on first down?
Boise State possesses college football’s greatest tone-setter on offense in Ashton Jeanty. Having faced him last year, UNLV knew coming into its first matchup that it couldn’t allow Jeanty to take the game over.
Prior to that game in Week 9, Jeanty had been averaging an otherworldly 11.7 yards per carry on first down. UNLV held him to just 4.6 first-down yards per carry, giving itself a chance to make stops on later downs.
Many of the Broncos’ most successful plays came from two sources — first-down passing and play action. Maddux Madsen completed eight of his 12 passes on first down that night, totaling 139 yards. When utilizing play action, regardless of down and distance, he went nine-for-12 for 125 yards and earned an 87.3 passing grade.
As for the first part, Boise State passes on first down at the 11th-lowest rate in the nation. Obviously, they have Jeanty to put them in better late-down situations, but defenses have been loading the box on first down lately and have had at least some success in slowing Jeanty down.
Their play-action attack will be key as it already works once against the Rebels. In fact, UNLV ranks just 40th in the FBS in play-action coverage grade. Some opponents have been able to take advantage of the Rebels' aggression by using play-action fakes in order to work the ball into the intermediate part of the field.
There will come a time if and when they have a lead that Boise State will rely on Jeanty to carry the Broncos to the finish line. They may be wise until then to occasionally use him as a decoy to create explosive plays in the passing game.
Matchup to watch when UNLV has the ball (Max): Can Boise State contain Hajj-Malik Williams on the ground?
Hajj-Malik Williams couldn’t get anything going as a passer back when these two teams squared off in October. His 49.1 passing grade was his worst of the season by 13 points, completing just 54.5% of his throws with two big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays.
Williams was far more dangerous as a runner against the Broncos. He ran for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, which was 15 more yards than Ashton Jeanty had on 19 fewer attempts. 114 of Williams’ yards came after contact as he forced nine missed tackles along the way. It was his best rushing performance of the season and kept UNLV in the game despite not having much of a passing game to rely on.
Boise State’s secondary (38th in coverage grade) has been the strength of its defense but it’s had issues with its run defense (77th) and tackling (132nd) all season. Mobile quarterbacks in particular have burned the Broncos, as five different signal-callers have rushed for at least 50 yards on them this season.
If Boise State can contain Williams on the ground and force him to win as a dropback passer, the Broncos have a great chance of winning the Mountain West and clinching a playoff spot.
Predictions
Dalton: UNLV 27, Boise State 24
These two teams are very evenly matched, and it’s tough to beat an opponent twice in one season. UNLV rides Jai’Den Thomas, Hajj-Malik Williams, and its hot running game to stun the Broncos on the road.
Max: Boise State 31, UNLV 28
Jeanty makes one last case to Heisman voters who are on the fence and the Broncos take down the Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game in back-to-back years. Boise State clinches a playoff spot and will more than likely receive a first-round bye.
American Athletic Championship: Tulane Green Wave at No. 24 Army Black Knights (Friday, 8 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: Likely none
Since both Boise State and UNLV are ranked above Army, it’s highly unlikely that the Group of Five playoff spot exits the Mountain West.
The Green Wave are going for their second AAC title in three years while the Black Knights are going for their first conference title in program history. The two did not play each other during the regular season.
Matchup to watch when Army has the ball (Dalton): Which Tulane run defense will show up?
There is a clear line of demarcation with regard to Tulane’s success this year — its run defense. The Green Wave has allowed 200 rushing yards in a game on four occasions this season. They lost three of those games while the fourth was a one-score victory over Louisiana.
In their other eight victories, they allowed just over 102 rushing yards per game and won by an average of 34 points. They’ve also won every game in which they’ve graded above 66.0 in run defense. Included in that set of data is a shutout victory over Navy in which they allowed just 114 yards across 33 carries.
Similar success will set them up for victory over Army, but the Black Knights boast the highest run-blocking grade in the nation and quarterback Bryson Daily, who has rushed for 1,351 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Army is arguably the best team in the nation at breaking contain on run plays, not only because of the triple option but because of its variety of formations and run schemes.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Max): Will Tulane dominate at the line of scrimmage?
Tulane has the nation’s fourth-highest-graded offense this season and ironically only trails Army among Group of Five schools. A major reason for that is that the Green Wave don’t have a real weakness offensively. They’re among the top 35 FBS teams in every grading category: passing, rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking.
When looking at the Black Knights’ defense, they’re solid in the secondary (40th in coverage grade) but have major issues defending the run (91st) and rushing the passer (108th). Army is 110th in rushing yards before contact allowed (2.1) and 114th in pressure rate (26.7%) this season.
That could be a major issue against the Green Wave. Makhi Hughes is sixth among FBS running backs with 955 yards after contact while Tulane’s offensive line is the ninth-highest-graded in all of college football.
Predictions
In a game likely to pass by quickly involving two teams that run the ball as much as any in the nation, Tulane’s offensive balance and experienced defense get the job done for an AAC title victory.
Both rushing attacks find success in this game, but Darian Mensah and the Green Wave’s talented group of receivers make enough plays to put Tulane over the top.
Big 12 Championship: No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (12 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: De facto playoff game
The Big 12 is all but guaranteed to only send one team to the College Football Playoff, making its conference championship game a win-and-in scenario for both Arizona State and Iowa State. If Clemson beats SMU, the winner of the Big 12 should also expect a first-round bye.
The Sun Devils are raging hot, riding a five-game win streak heading into Saturday while the Cyclones are on a three-game heater of their own. The two did not face off during the regular season. Arizona State is in its first year as a member of the Big 12 and hasn’t won a conference championship since 2007. Iowa State’s last conference title came over a century ago in 1912.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Can Rocco Becht keep getting away with mistakes?
During his first six games of the season, Rocco Becht appeared as though he was improving upon last year’s solid redshirt freshman campaign enough that he could lead the Cyclones into Big 12 contention. While they have made the Big 12 title game, they have done so partially despite Becht’s mistakes.
| Metric | First 6 games | Last 6 games |
| Passing Grade | 77.7 | 59.2 |
| Big Time Throws | 8 | 7 |
| Turnover worthy plays | 4 | 14 |
| Yards per attempt | 9.0 | 6.8 |
Among the 69 Power Four quarterbacks who have taken at least 100 dropbacks since Week 8, Becht’s 59.2 passing grade ranks 57th, and he has committed the most turnover-worthy plays.
Becht has a habit of putting the ball in danger on throws relatively close to the line of scrimmage. These are the types of throws that underneath defenders can return for touchdowns and are generally the lowest-graded throws on PFF’s grading scale.
Becht has committed 11 turnover-worthy plays this season on passes thrown under 10 yards. No other quarterback has committed more than seven. His 53.8 passing grade on such throws ranks only ahead of Wisconsin’s Braedyn Locke among Power Four passers with at least 100 attempts.
Becht’s ball security will be crucial against an Arizona State defense that has reeled in 11 interceptions since Week 7, tied with three other teams for the Power Four lead in that span.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Max): Can the Sun Devils ride Cam Skattebo to victory?
Arizona State’s offense is centered around three players: running back Cam Skattebo, quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. All three have earned PFF grades above 84.0 this season. The next-closest Sun Devil, offensive tackle Max Iheanachor, has just a 70.6 mark.
So it’s safe to say that Arizona State received devastating news this week when it was announced that Tyson is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. He was targeted on 32.1% of his routes this year, fifth among all Power Four players. Tyson’s 1,104 receiving yards are 636 more than the next-closest Sun Devil, which happens to be Skattebo.
Speaking of, Arizona State will likely rely on its superstar running back more than ever before in this game with Tyson out. Skattebo is sixth among FBS backs this year with 970 yards after contact while placing fourth with 468 receiving yards.
While Iowa State’s secondary has been outstanding this season (11th in coverage grade), the Cyclones have had significant issues up front on defense. Their 67.7 run-defense grade is among the 15 worst in college football, allowing 5.6 yards per carry (5.6). Iowa State’s best run defender, linebacker Caleb Bacon, hasn’t played since Week 1 due to leg surgery.
If the Cyclones can make someone other than Skattebo beat them, they have a great chance at winning their first Big 12 championship and securing a College Football Playoff berth.
Predictions
Dalton: Arizona State 31, Iowa State 27
The Jordyn Tyson loss could be the difference if Arizona State loses, but this team is built around Cam Skattebo’s infectious physical attitude. The Sun Devils pull off a tight victory to add a playoff berth to Kenny Dillingham’s masterclass this season.
Max: Arizona State 27, Iowa State 24
Skattebo has been the engine for the Sun Devils’ offense all season. He’ll likely need to be the entire car in this game with Tyson out. Luckily for Arizona State, Iowa State has had significant problems stopping the run all year. That coupled with Rocco Becht’s recent cold streak makes me want to ride with the Sun Devils to win the Big 12 during their first year in the conference.
MAC Championship: Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Ohio Bobcats (12 PM EST on ESPN)
Playoff implications: None
Neither Miami (8-4) nor Ohio (9-3) are playoff candidates heading into Detroit.
The RedHawks are going for their second-straight MAC championship while the Bobcats haven’t won the conference in 56 years. Miami got the better of Ohio in their previous meeting back in October, winning by a 30-20 final score.
Matchup to watch when Ohio has the ball (Dalton): Can the Bobcats find rushing lanes for Parker Navarro?
Since Week 5, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro ranks among the top five quarterbacks in rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns. Navarro is a good scrambler, but he has created most of his explosive runs via designed carries. Whether it be through a read option, quarterback draw, or power scheme, Navarro has become the centerpiece of the Bobcats’ run game down the stretch.
The Redhawks boast an excellent run defense that is the league’s highest-graded since they started conference play in Week 5. Led by outstanding linebackers Matt Salopek and Ty Wise, Miami actually held Navarro to his second-lowest rushing total of the season at just 39 yards.
The Bobcats have been unable to get their run game going in two straight matchups against Miami. If that is the case for a third time, they are unlikely to find themselves hoisting a MAC Championship trophy.
Matchup to watch when Miami (OH) has the ball (Max): Will Ohio’s tackling problems persist?
Ohio had major issues bringing down Miami’s running backs when these two met back in Week 8. Keyon Mozee ran for 111 yards against the Bobcats, all of which came after contact. Dylan Downing forced three missed tackles on his seven attempts in the game as well. In total, the RedHawks had 92.7% of their rushing yards come after contact in that game.
The Bobcats’ tackling issue wasn’t exclusive to just that game either. Ohio’s missed 17% of its tackle attempts this year, the 16th-highest rate in America. Combine that with the fact that Miami’s run-blocking grade is among the 15 best in college football, and it could be another long day for the Bobcats’ run defense if they don’t wrap up.
Predictions
Dalton: Miami (OH) 31, Ohio 21
For two seasons, Miami has proven that it is the best team in the MAC. If the RedHawks stop the run as they have in the last two meetings with Ohio and Brett Gabbert continues to play clean football, they’ll win their second consecutive conference championship.
This game could be pretty low-scoring. In a game where both teams will likely try to heavily establish the run, I like the RedHawks’ defense to come up with more stops.
SEC Championship: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (4 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: Both are in, winner gets a first-round bye
Both Texas (11-1) and Georgia (10-2) are essentially guaranteed at least an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. This game will determine which school gets to skip the first round of the playoffs.
The Bulldogs were the only team who’s taken down the Longhorns this season, winning 30-15 back in Week 8. Georgia is trying to win its second SEC title in three years while Texas is trying to win in its first year as a member.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): How aggressive is Texas willing to be against Georgia’s passing attack?
Texas possesses arguably the best defense in the nation. The Longhorns lead the FBS in team defense grade primarily due to a first-place ranking in coverage grade and a fifth-ranked pass rush grade. Despite their immense amount of talent, the Longhorns rarely get aggressive on defense.
Texas ranks inside the bottom 20 in the nation in terms of pass blitz rate and press coverage rate. The Longhorns run a very low percentage of man coverage as well as they rely on the execution of their basic defensive principles in order to succeed.
They may be wise to change those tendencies against the Bulldogs, who have struggled to find consistent success when opponents get more aggressive on defense. Georgia ranks 84th in the nation in receiving grade versus man coverage. While Carson Beck owns a solid 76.0 passing grade against man coverage, much of that production is rooted in big games against Auburn and Mississippi State.
Beck’s performance also significantly dips when he is blitzed. His 69.3 passing grade against the blitz is a relatively average mark itself but is also heavily weighted toward those two games against lesser opponents. When defenses have sped up Beck and challenged their receivers to separate quickly, the Bulldogs have gone through stretches of ineffectiveness on offense.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): Will Kirby Smart have Quinn Ewers in a blender again?
Simply put, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers had the worst game of his career against Georgia back in October. His 29.9 PFF grade against the Bulldogs was the worst of his career by over 18 points. Ewers’ seven turnover-worthy plays that night are tied for the most in a game by an FBS signal-caller over the last five seasons. His pocket presence was also a mess, as four of his five sacks taken in that game were charted as his fault.
A performance like that against a Kirby Smart-coached defense usually means the quarterback didn’t handle his aggressive defensive mentality very well. Georgia blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in America this season (50.5%) but in that game, the Bulldogs only blitzed on 32.2% of their snaps. Instead, Georgia confused Ewers by disguising its coverages far more than usual. The Bulldogs disguised their coverage 38.7% of the time in that game despite only doing so on 24.2% of their other games.
That game plan worked to perfection as Ewers consistently broke clean pockets and struggled to find the open receiver with seven coverage defenders. It’ll be interesting to see whether Smart employs a similar approach in the SEC Championship Game or if he’ll dial the pressure back up.
Predictions
Aside from the Florida game, Ewers and his wide receivers have faded down the stretch as the Longhorns’ defense has been burdened with carrying them. Unless Ewers turns in a season-best performance or the Longhorns’ run game is significantly more effective than the first meeting, the Bulldogs will find a way to win again.
In what should be a defensive game, I trust Carson Beck far more than I do Quinn Ewers right now. The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns once again and clinch a first-round bye.
Sun Belt Championship: Marshall Thundering Herd at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (7:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Playoff implications: None
Neither Louisiana nor Marshall are currently ranked, so this game won’t affect anything in terms of the College Football Playoff. Louisiana is looking for its third Sun Belt title in the last five years while Marshall is searching for its first Sun Belt championship ever and first conference title since 2014. The two did not square off in the regular season.
Matchup to watch when Louisiana has the ball (Dalton): Chandler Fields vs. Marshall’s pass defense
Backup quarterback Chandler Fields has played well over the past few seasons when pressed into action. He’s started 14 games and played in several others since the start of 2022, earning a 76.0 passing grade in the process.
With starter Ben Wooldridge out due to injury, Fields will be tasked with winning a Sun Belt title against a Marshall pass defense that presents multiple problems. The Thundering Herd rank third in the FBS behind Texas and Notre Dame with a 92.2 coverage grade.
Marshall’s secondary contains multiple ball hawks who are aggressive at the catch point. As a team, they’ve posted the ninth-highest forced incompletion rate in the FBS. Safety J.J. Roberts and cornerback Jacobie Henderson lead the way with 11 and 10 pass breakups, respectively.
Fields has completed 7 of his 10 deep passes this season, but shouldn’t fully expect that to be the case this week. Marshall ranks third in the nation in deep coverage grade and has allowed just 31.8% of deep passes to be completed.
Matchup to watch when Marshall has the ball (Max): Can Louisiana contain Marshall’s dangerous backfield?
Marshall’s offense has had its fair share of issues this year. The Thundering Herd are outside of the top 50 in passing grade (96th), receiving grade (125th), pass-blocking grade (55th) and run-blocking grade (80th).
The best aspect of Marshall’s offense is its backfield. The Thundering Herd employ a committee backfield with A.J. Turner and Jordan Houston leading the way. Turner in particular is third among all backs in the nation with 8.3 yards per carry. Quarterback Braylon Braxton is also very effective on the ground, placing 17th among FBS signal-callers with 402 yards after contact.
Louisiana’s struggled to defend the run this year, allowing 5.3 yards per attempt (98th) and ranking 93rd in explosive run rate allowed. The Ragin’ Cajuns have done a pretty good job at defending the quarterback run this season, allowing just one signal-caller to rush for 50-plus yards this season.
If Louisiana can be effective against the run, Marshall’s offense could really struggle.
Predictions
Dalton: Louisiana 34, Marshall 27
The Sun Belt’s best offense faces its best defense for a conference title. I’ll take the offensive side in Louisiana, whose only losses came to Tulane and South Alabama when Wooldridge was hurt mid-game. If the Ragin' Cajuns protect Fields in the pocket, they’ll reclaim the Sun Belt title.
Max: Louisiana 30, Marshall 28
Even with star quarterback Ben Wooldridge out, backup Chandler Fields has looked more than capable for the Ragin’ Cajuns so far. Louisiana wins at home and wins their third Sun Belt championship of the 2020s.
Big Ten Championship: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (8 PM EST on CBS)
Playoff implications: Both are in, the winner gets a first-round bye
The loser of Oregon–Penn State is essentially guaranteed to at least host a first-round playoff game, while the winner has a good chance to be the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff. For the Ducks, they’re either going to be the top-seeded team in the country with a win and at worst the No. 5 seed with a loss. Penn State will be either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the playoff with a win and will still be among the top-eight seeds with a loss.
The two did not play each other in the regular season. Oregon is searching for a Big Ten title in its inaugural season as a member of the conference while Penn State is searching for its first in eight years.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Penn State’s offensive line vs. Oregon’s elite defensive front
Penn State’s offensive line has played at a relatively average level this season after losing three of its starters to the NFL draft after last season. This season, the Nittany Lions rank 57th in the FBS with a 70.8 overall grade and have struggled to pass protect against the better teams on their schedule.
Oregon features an elite defensive front that includes stars such as defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell and linebackers Byce Boettcher and Jeffrey Bassa. The Ducks are one of just two teams, along with Texas, with a top-10 defensive line and linebacker unit per PFF grades.
As it relates to the pass rush, only Michigan has a better pass rush win rate than Oregon. Harmon leads all defensive tackles with 47 pressures this season. Penn State had major interior protection issues against Ohio State, which owns the one defensive line that is comparable to Oregon’s on the Nittany Lions’ schedule.
Drew Allar has played well under pressure this season primarily because he protects the football well. He may need to be even better in this game as he makes plays around potentially shaky pass protection.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Max): Can Penn State get after Dillon Gabriel?
Dillon Gabriel has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season, ranking seventh among FBS signal-callers with a 90.2 PFF grade. The sixth-year senior is especially lethal when defenses give him time to find the open receiver while he’s just above average when they try to speed him up.
Dillon Gabriel’s PFF grades by situation
| Situation | PFF grade (FBS rank) |
| Kept Clean | 92.2 (9th) |
| Under Pressure | 59.0 (38th) |
| Not Blitzed | 90.7 (50th) |
| Blitzed | 75.2 (46th) |
Penn State’s pass rush is easily the strength of its team. The Nittany Lions are eighth in pass-rushing grade (87.5), 10th in pressure rate (38.8%) and third in sack/hit rate (18.9%). Penn State also blitzes at a top-30 rate in the country (41.6%).
Edge defender Abdul Carter is the star of that unit, currently ranking as the fifth-best prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft according to PFF’s big board. While Oregon’s pass-protection has been just above average this year (43rd in pass-blocking grade), the Ducks’ tackle duo of Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius has been outstanding (14th in pass-blocking grade as a duo).
If Penn State doesn’t dominate up front, the Nittany Lions will likely struggle to contain one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.
Predictions
Dalton: Oregon 27, Penn State 19
Penn State’s defense can keep them in this game, especially if Oregon continues to struggle in the red zone. Someone other than Tyler Warren needs to create explosive plays for them to win, though, and that has been a major concern all season. The Ducks head into the playoff as the lone undefeated team.
Max: Oregon 30, Penn State 24
The Ducks look like the most complete team in college football right now. While the Nittany Lion pass rush could present some problems, Oregon survives and heads into the playoff with an undefeated record and the top overall seed.
ACC Championship: No. 8 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 17 Clemson Tigers (8 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: SMU is likely just fighting for a first-round bye, Clemson is fighting to keep its season alive
With an 11-1 record, it’s more than likely that SMU is safe in the playoff even with a loss to Clemson. It’s highly unlikely that the committee expels an 11-2 team in favor of a 9-3 SEC squad. It’s certainly not impossible though considering the Mustangs’ best victory is over an 8-4 Louisville team, so better to be safe than sorry for SMU. Regardless, the Mustangs are at least fighting for the right to skip the first round of the playoff and to win the ACC in its first season as a member.
Clemson does not have the same luxury of making the playoff with a loss because of its 9-3 record, so beating SMU is a requirement for the Tigers to crash the field. Clemson is trying to win its eighth ACC championship over the last 10 years.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): Clemson’s offensive line vs. SMU’s deep defensive line
Clemson has scored 24 points or less this season on five occasions, losing three of those games. The common denominator in those five games is that they also contain the Tigers’ five lowest pass-blocking grades of the year. Those are also the five games where they played Power Four teams with above-average pass rushes.
Clemson’s offensive line will face another steep challenge in SMU’s defensive front, which ranks 11th in the nation in pass rush grade, one spot behind Louisville, who beat the Tigers convincingly just over a month ago.
The Mustangs have five different defensive linemen who have racked up at least 30 pressures and four sacks. The star of the group is Elijah Roberts, who leads the team with an 82.1 pass-rush grade and ranks fifth in the nation with 55 pressures this season. SMU doesn’t need to blitz much because it has Roberts alongside Jared Harrison-Hunte, Isaiah Smith, and Jahfari Harvey, among others, who consistently harass quarterbacks in the pocket.
SMU has a legitimate nine-man rotation on the defensive line that is effective against the run and the pass. This unit is capable of controlling this game if the Clemson offensive line plays the same way it has against the better teams they’ve seen so far.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): How does Clemson contain Brashard Smith?
Smith has been quietly one of the best running backs in college football this season. His 91.5 PFF grade is third among all tailbacks in the nation and he’s the only one in the country with 85-plus grades as both a rusher and receiver.
Clemson has had some issues defending versatile running backs this season. For example, Pittsburgh’s Desmond Reid caught 10 of 11 targets for 108 yards three weeks ago on the Tigers. Clemson is also just 110th among FBS defenses in yards per carry allowed (5.5) while placing as the Power Four’s fourth-worst team in explosive run-rate allowed (19.5%).
Linebackers Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz will be tasked with ensuring Smith doesn’t run wild on them.
Predictions
SMU has played the most consistently dominant football in the ACC all season. Clemson has beaten just one team that owns a winning record. The Mustangs, led by Kevin Jennings, Brashard Smith, and an underrated defense win the conference title in their first season as members of the ACC.
As Dalton said, SMU’s looked like the most complete ACC team this season. The Mustangs prove it on Saturday night with a close win over Clemson and clinch both the conference title and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
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