• RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions — over 71.5 rushing yards (-112): Even in a committee backfield, Gibbs has established himself as one of the league’s most dynamic running backs, especially in open space. The sophomore back has earned an impressive 85.2 rushing grade, ranking top-10 at the position, and has recorded the third-most carries of 10 or more yards (25) this season.
• WR KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys — over 5.5 receiving yards (-112): Turpin put himself on the map in Week 12 with an incredible kick return for a touchdown, highlighted by a dazzling spin move and blazing long speed. That performance should earn Turpin more opportunities in a Cowboys offense desperate for playmakers beyond CeeDee Lamb.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (-9.5) [Total: 47.5]
Game Overview
Detroit has been nearly unstoppable this season, and their dominance on the field has carried over to betting markets. The Lions boast a 9-2 record against the spread (ATS), including a perfect 2-0 mark when favored by 10 or more points. On Thanksgiving Day, Dan Campbell’s squad has gone 2-1 ATS, with their lone failed cover coming last season in a 29-22 loss to the Packers at home as 8.5-point favorites.
While coaching changes haven’t translated into wins for the Bears, they’ve shown improvement in betting markets. Chicago is 1-0-1 ATS since naming Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. The offense’s strides under Brown have kept the Bears competitive, providing a chance for a late-game backdoor cover if they come ready to play on Thanksgiving.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Over 71.5 rushing yards (-112)
Even in a committee backfield, Gibbs has established himself as one of the league’s most dynamic running backs, especially in open space. The sophomore back has earned an impressive 85.2 rushing grade, ranking top-10 at the position, and has recorded the third-most carries of 10 or more yards (25) this season. That explosive playmaking ability has allowed Gibbs to exceed this rushing line in seven games and surpass his overall projection in nine outings.
The Bears have struggled to contain opposing running backs this season, consistently allowing significant yardage. Chicago has surrendered this rushing line to eight running backs in their 11 games. With David Montgomery nursing an injury and listed as questionable for this matchup, Gibbs is well-positioned to take full advantage.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) [Total: 37.5]
Game Overview
The bottom of the NFC East has endured a rough season, and the struggles have extended to betting markets. This year, both the Giants and Cowboys hold a 27.3% cover rate.
The Giants’ decision to move on from Daniel Jones hasn’t improved their fortunes, as they’ve dropped six straight games both outright and against the spread. Now, things could get even more complicated, with Jones’ replacement, Tommy DeVito, listed as questionable after suffering a forearm injury last week. If DeVito cannot go, Drew Lock could become the team’s third starting quarterback in as many weeks.
On the other sideline, the Cowboys appeared to be headed down a similar path but recently snapped their five-game losing streak, both outright and ATS, with a road victory over the Commanders. Despite that momentum, Dallas remains winless against the spread at home, holding a 0-5 record on the season.
WR KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys: Over 5.5 receiving yards (-112)
Turpin put himself on the map in Week 12 with an incredible kick return for a touchdown, highlighted by a dazzling spin move and blazing long speed. That performance should earn Turpin more opportunities in a Cowboys offense desperate for playmakers beyond CeeDee Lamb.
The electrifying return man has been effective in limited action, earning a solid 70.0 PFF receiving grade this season. Turpin has impressed with the ball in his hands, catching seven of his eight targets in November while generating a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted.
Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers (-3) [Total: 47.5]
Game Overview
Tua Tagovailoa’s return has ignited the Dolphins offense at the perfect time. Since his comeback in Week 8, Miami boasts the fourth-highest EPA per play in the NFL, fueling a 4-1 record against the spread (ATS) and a 2-0 mark as an underdog. This rejuvenated offense has also driven four overs on game totals in their last five contests, averaging an impressive 29 points per game.
The Packers, on the other hand, have struggled to find similar success in betting markets. Despite a 6-1 record straight up, Green Bay has covered just one of their last five games — their lone success coming last week against a Brock Purdy-less 49ers squad. The Packers have also been inconsistent when laying points this season, holding a 3-4 ATS record in such situations.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers: Over 3.5 receptions (+122)
The emergence of Tucker Kraft has provided Jordan Love with another dynamic target in Green Bay’s offense. While Kraft doesn’t command a large share of the Packers’ passing volume, he has proven to be a reliable option in key situations, racking up six touchdowns — the second-most among tight ends this season. With the Dolphins‘ offense firing on all cylinders, this game script has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Although Miami’s defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, they continue to struggle against tight ends. Over the past five games, the Dolphins have allowed four or more receptions to six different tight ends, including standout performances by Vegas’ Brock Bowers and Arizona’s Trey McBride.
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