• QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos — over 219.5 passing yards & over 2.5 passing touchdowns: Much of the credit for this team’s success belongs to head coach Sean Payton and his rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, who is quickly building a strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since Week 9, Nix has earned an 83.5 PFF passing grade — the third-highest in the NFL — while leading the league with an 84.7% adjusted completion percentage. He also threw eight touchdown passes during that span, the most by any quarterback without an interception.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Game Overview
The Week 13 slate wraps up on Monday night with an AFC showdown as the surprising Browns travel to Denver, looking to spoil the Broncos’ playoff aspirations.
After starting November with a disheartening blowout loss in Baltimore, the Broncos have responded with three straight strong performances, resulting in covers and finishing the month 3-1 against the spread (ATS). Denver now boasts a share of the league’s best ATS record at 9-3, including a perfect 5-0 mark as the favorite.
This Broncos defense has been the backbone of their success, providing enough breathing room for their young quarterback to play loose and confidently with a lead. The unit has been remarkably efficient, ranking second in EPA allowed per play and top five in scoring drive percentage allowed (30.8%).
Cleveland, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistent success in betting markets, sitting at 4-7 ATS. However, they’ve shown they can catch teams off guard when underestimated. Over their last four games, the Browns are 2-2 both straight up and ATS, including two outright wins against AFC playoff contenders.
That said, Cleveland’s inconsistency looms large, as they’re just two weeks removed from a 35-14 loss to a sub-.500 Saints team in New Orleans. While Jameis Winston has added a slight spark to the passing game, the Browns‘ lack of a reliable running attack has left them one-dimensional. Even with Nick Chubb back in the lineup, Cleveland ranks dead last in explosive run percentage (5.6%) since Week 7, failing to reignite the rushing attack they’d hoped for.
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: Over 219.5 passing yards & over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Much of the credit for this team’s success belongs to head coach Sean Payton and his rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, who is quickly building a strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since Week 9, Nix has earned an 83.5 PFF passing grade — the third-highest in the NFL — while leading the league with an 84.7% adjusted completion percentage. He also threw eight touchdown passes during that span, the most by any quarterback without an interception.
Over his last five games, the young quarterback has surpassed 220 passing yards and thrown for at least two touchdowns in the same game three times, including in each of the past two weeks.
Cleveland’s coverage unit has struggled to limit passing production, particularly recently. Since Week 9, the Browns’ coverage grade sits at just 55.4, ranking in the bottom third of the league. Their inability to prevent big plays has been a key issue, as they’ve allowed the second-highest rate of completions of 15-plus yards (21.6%).
This vulnerability has allowed opposing quarterbacks to surpass both benchmarks in four of their last six games.
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